Sheep and beef farm profits in New Zealand are forecast to transform from among the lowest in 40 years to two of the best years, informed Farmers Weekly.
Beef +Lamb New Zealand’s new season outlook says continued global supply shortages will keep beef and lamb prices elevated for at least the coming year.
In 2023-24, 40% of farmers made a loss and the average farm profit before tax was just $18,914, cited as the toughest year since the 2007-08 global financial crisis. This year BLNZ is forecasting an average farm profit before tax of $138,600, rising to $166,500 next year.
AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad cannot recall BLNZ forecasts of $10/kg or more for lamb. A year ago lamb was worth $7.20/kg. Today it is $10.25-$10.35/kg.
These prices are driven by strength in NZ traditional United States, European and United Kingdom markets, while China remains relatively sedate, although still a key outlet for certain cuts. “We are nowhere near as reliant on China as we once were and it will be a bonus if we see some upside in pricing,” Croad said.
She notes the BLNZ forecasts were based on a NZ-US dollar exchange rate of US63c, US4c above the average for 2024-25.
