High profits expected for NZ beef and sheep farmers

Sheep and beef farm profits in New Zealand are forecast to transform from among the lowest in 40 years to two of the best years, informed Farmers Weekly.

Beef +Lamb New Zealand’s new season outlook says continued global supply shortages will keep beef and lamb prices elevated for at least the coming year.

In 2023-24, 40% of farmers made a loss and the average farm profit before tax was just $18,914, cited as the toughest year since the 2007-08 global financial crisis. This year BLNZ is forecasting an average farm profit before tax of $138,600, rising to $166,500 next year.

AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad cannot recall BLNZ forecasts of $10/kg or more for lamb. A year ago lamb was worth $7.20/kg. Today it is $10.25-$10.35/kg.

These prices are driven by strength in NZ traditional United States, European and United Kingdom markets, while China remains relatively sedate, although still a key outlet for certain cuts. “We are nowhere near as reliant on China as we once were and it will be a bonus if we see some upside in pricing,” Croad said.

She notes the BLNZ forecasts were based on a NZ-US dollar exchange rate of US63c, US4c above the average for 2024-25.